Vitoria 1-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitoria at 44%, yet the head-to-head data favours Flamengo — this Vitoria vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Flamengo travel to Barradao to take on Vitoria in Serie A (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 00:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Vitoria stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Vitoria have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Flamengo have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Flamengo's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vitoria 1.70 PPG, Flamengo 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Flamengo have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Vitoria.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2025, ended Vitoria 0–8 Flamengo — a Flamengo win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Flamengo have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 4.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Vitoria trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Flamengo trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitoria 50% versus Flamengo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitoria 45% | Flamengo 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Vitoria surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Flamengo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.33 xG and Flamengo 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.891 / defence 0.757 | Flamengo attack 1.229 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.100. Flamengo have an above-average attack rating of 1.229, which lifts their away xG to 1.02. Vitoria have a tight defence (rating 0.757), which is pulling Flamengo's projected output down. Data: built from Vitoria's last 40 games and Flamengo's last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vitoria 44% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 28%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 2.29 | Draw 3.58 | Flamengo 3.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitoria are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vitoria 20% (last 10 home games) | Flamengo 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Vitoria 40 games, Flamengo 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 3 | Venue: Barradao • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 00:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 44% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Vitoria 1.33 / Flamengo 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.891 / def 0.757 | Flamengo attack 1.229 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Vitoria (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Flamengo xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vitoria vs Flamengo FAQs
What time does Vitoria vs Flamengo kick off?
Vitoria vs Flamengo kicked off at 00:30 UK time on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at Barradao.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Vitoria 1 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Vitoria vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Barradao.
What competition is Vitoria vs Flamengo part of?
Vitoria vs Flamengo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 3) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 44% chance of winning, Flamengo a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vitoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Vitoria and Flamengo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Vitoria vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vitoria's attack at 0.89x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Vitoria's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vitoria's last 40 games and Flamengo's last 40, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitoria Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.58
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Vitoria xG
Total xG
2.36
1.02
Flamengo xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
7%
13.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vitoria vs Flamengo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.02 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitoria's recent record stands at 24W 20D 32L from 76 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 43W 20D 13L across 76 games — 1.96 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitoria heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vitoria have managed 17W 9D 12L from their last 38 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 18W 10D 10L across their last 38 away games, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitoria are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.83 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
Vitoria (Home) vs Flamengo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vitoria
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Vitoria vs Flamengo Form FAQs
What form are Vitoria and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Vitoria have gone 24W 20D 32L in their last 76 games (1.21 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 43W 20D 13L in their last 76 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitoria at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitoria at home: 1.58 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Vitoria or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitoria have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Flamengo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from July 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Flamengo have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Aug 2025, when Flamengo won Flamengo 8-0 Vitoria.
Vitoria's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vitoria
1
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Vitoria vs Flamengo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Flamengo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Vitoria have won 0, Flamengo have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Flamengo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Flamengo 2-0 Vitoria.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitoria 47%, Flamengo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Vitoria) and 53% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Vitoria keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Vitoria have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vitoria vs Flamengo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vitoria and Flamengo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Vitoria's recent matches and 60% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vitoria and Flamengo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Vitoria's recent games and 53% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitoria and Flamengo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Vitoria's recent matches and 66% of Flamengo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Flamengo defy the odds to beat Vitoria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Vitoria 1-2 at Barradao, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.33 xG and Flamengo 1.02 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.89 / defence 0.76 against Flamengo attack 1.23 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 44% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 28%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 45%, Flamengo 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitoria's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vitoria (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.