Vitoria 4-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitoria at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vitoria face Coritiba.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Coritiba travel to Estádio Manoel Barradas to take on Vitoria in Serie A (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 22:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Vitoria — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Vitoria's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.33 xG and Coritiba 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.931 / defence 0.655 | Coritiba attack 0.973 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.053. Vitoria have a tight defence (rating 0.655), which is pulling Coritiba's projected output down. Data: built from Vitoria's last 50 games and Coritiba's last 13.
Result probabilities: Vitoria 53% | Draw 29% | Coritiba 19%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 1.90 | Draw 3.50 | Coritiba 5.31. Vitoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitoria are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, matchday 14 | Venue: Estádio Manoel Barradas • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 22:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 53% | Draw 29% | Coritiba 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Vitoria 1.33 / Coritiba 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.931 / def 0.655 | Coritiba attack 0.973 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Vitoria (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Coritiba xG
36%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vitoria vs Coritiba FAQs
What time does Vitoria vs Coritiba kick off?
Vitoria vs Coritiba kicked off at 22:30 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Coritiba?
Vitoria 4 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Vitoria vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What competition is Vitoria vs Coritiba part of?
Vitoria vs Coritiba is a Serie A fixture (matchday 14) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 53% chance of winning, Coritiba a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vitoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Vitoria and Coritiba will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Vitoria vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vitoria's attack at 0.93x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Vitoria's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vitoria's last 50 games and Coritiba's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitoria Win
53%
1.90
29%
3.50
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Vitoria xG
Total xG
2.00
0.67
Coritiba xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
5%
20.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.1 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vitoria vs Coritiba Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Vitoria and 0.67 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Vitoria (Home) vs Coritiba (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vitoria
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from May 2026. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vitoria
0
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Vitoria vs Coritiba H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Coritiba?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Vitoria have won 1, Coritiba have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Coritiba last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Coritiba 2-0 Vitoria.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Vitoria run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitoria beat Coritiba 4-1 at Estádio Manoel Barradas, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.33 xG and Coritiba 0.67 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Vitoria beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.93 / defence 0.66 against Coritiba attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 50/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 53% | Draw 29% | Coritiba 19%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.