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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Vitoria edge out Bahia 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitoria beat Bahia 2-1 at Barradao, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.39 xG and Bahia 0.94 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.84 / defence 0.96 against Bahia attack 0.95 / defence 1.15, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitoria 47% | Draw 27% | Bahia 25%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 47%, Bahia 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitoria's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Bahia's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitoria 1.12 PPG, Bahia 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitoria win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights