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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Vasco DA Gama edge out Vitoria 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasco DA Gama beat Vitoria 4-3 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 2.33 xG and Vitoria 0.81 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vitoria outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.17 / defence 1.17 against Vitoria attack 0.70 / defence 1.44, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 71% | Draw 17% | Vitoria 11%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 53%, Vitoria 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Vitoria's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.25 PPG, Vitoria 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitoria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights