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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vasco DA Gama cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sport Recife.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasco DA Gama beat Sport Recife 3-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.40 xG and Sport Recife 0.70 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Sport Recife attack 0.74 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 51% | Draw 33% | Sport Recife 16%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights