Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 3

Kick-off

Sun 13 Apr 2025

01:00

Venue

Estádio São Januário

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Vasco DA Gama Win

51%

Vasco DA Gama

1.96

33%

Draw

2.99

16%

Sport Recife

6.39

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

17.2%

Home win

Most likely

0 – 0

12.3%

Draw

1 – 1

12.0%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.40

Vasco DA Gama xG

Total xG

2.10

0.70

Sport Recife xG

51%
33%
16%
Vasco DA GamaDrawSport Recife

1.96

51%

Home win

2.99

33%

Draw

6.39

16%

Away win

Goals Markets

62%

Over 1.5

1.61

38%

Under 1.5

2.63

35%

Over 2.5

2.86

65%

Under 2.5

1.54

16%

Over 3.5

6.25

84%

Under 3.5

1.19

6%

Over 4.5

16.67

94%

Under 4.5

1.06

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

41%

BTTS Yes

2.46

59%

BTTS No

1.69

Clean Sheet

50%

Vasco DA Gama

2.01

25%

Sport Recife

4.06

Win to Nil

25%

Vasco DA Gama

3.94

4%

Sport Recife

25.93

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.3 8.6 3.0 0.7 0.1
1 17.2 12.0 4.2 1.0 0.2
2 12.0 8.4 2.9 0.7 0.1
3 5.6 3.9 1.4 0.3 0.1
4 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1
5 0.6 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.400
λ Away (xG) 0.696
Total xG 2.096
League avg home goals 1.408
League avg away goals 0.891
Vasco DA Gama attack strength 1.055
Vasco DA Gama defence strength 1.056
Sport Recife attack strength 0.740
Sport Recife defence strength 0.942
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 40 / 2