🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Vasco DA Gama edge out Santos 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasco DA Gama beat Santos 2-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.59 xG and Santos 0.82 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Santos attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 53% | Draw 30% | Santos 17%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 50%, Santos 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.32 PPG, Santos 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights