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Shock result as Palmeiras defy the odds to beat Vasco DA Gama 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palmeiras beat Vasco DA Gama 0-1 at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.18 xG and Palmeiras 1.11 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Palmeiras attack 1.34 / defence 0.78, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 35% | Draw 33% | Palmeiras 32%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Palmeiras win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 43%, Palmeiras 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights