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Mirassol cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vasco DA Gama.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Vasco DA Gama 0-2 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.80 xG and Mirassol 1.16 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Mirassol outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.21 / defence 1.35 against Mirassol attack 0.86 / defence 0.99, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 52% | Draw 23% | Mirassol 25%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Mirassol win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 56%, Mirassol 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mirassol's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights