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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vasco DA Gama and Gremio share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasco DA Gama and Gremio finished level at 1-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.55 xG and Gremio 1.09 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.93 / defence 1.12 against Gremio attack 1.05 / defence 1.34, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 47% | Draw 26% | Gremio 26%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 53%, Gremio 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Gremio's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.24 PPG, Gremio 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights