Vasco DA Gama 1-0 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama host Fortaleza EC at Estádio São Januário in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 19 October 2023 at 01:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Vasco DA Gama have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's home record at Estádio São Januário: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortaleza EC stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vasco DA Gama at 1.80 PPG versus Fortaleza EC's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Vasco DA Gama's 30% rate and Fortaleza EC's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vasco DA Gama, 1 for Fortaleza EC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Fortaleza EC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Fortaleza EC in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 50% versus Fortaleza EC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vasco DA Gama 35% | Fortaleza EC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.19 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.969 / defence 1.044 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.889 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.043. Data: 26 Vasco DA Gama games / 64 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 39% | Draw 33% | Fortaleza EC 28%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Fortaleza EC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasco DA Gama at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Vasco DA Gama 30% | Fortaleza EC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Oct 2023, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 39% | Draw 33% | Fortaleza EC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.19 / Fortaleza EC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.969 / def 1.044 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.889 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Fortaleza EC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 19 October 2023 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC?
Vasco DA Gama 1 - 0 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 39% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC?
Record (1 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 0W | Draws 0 | Fortaleza EC 1W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (0.97) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
39%
2.53
33%
3.08
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.16
0.97
Fortaleza EC xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 0.97 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasco DA Gama's recent record stands at 7W 6D 13L from 26 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortaleza EC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 8L across 26 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortaleza EC by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasco DA Gama heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vasco DA Gama have managed 5W 1D 6L from 12 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortaleza EC's away record stands at 4W 2D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortaleza EC's season.
The Goals Picture
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.27 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 7W 6D 13L in their last 26 games (1.04 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 12W 6D 8L in their last 26 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.33 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Vasco DA Gama or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vasco DA Gama go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2024, when Fortaleza EC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Vasco DA Gama
0
Draws
2
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC?
From 6 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 4, Fortaleza EC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2025, when Fortaleza EC 0-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasco DA Gama see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Vasco DA Gama 25% BTTS, Fortaleza EC 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Vasco DA Gama and 33% for Fortaleza EC.
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fortaleza EC in 33%; Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 50% of games; Fortaleza EC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 33% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 33% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Vasco DA Gama edge out Fortaleza EC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Fortaleza EC 1-0 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.19 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortaleza EC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.97 / defence 1.04 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.89 / defence 0.91, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 39% | Draw 33% | Fortaleza EC 28%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 35%, Fortaleza EC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Vasco DA Gama winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.