Cruzeiro 0-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Flamengo at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cruzeiro vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Flamengo make the trip to Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto to face Cruzeiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Thursday 19 October 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Cruzeiro (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cruzeiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cruzeiro's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Flamengo have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Flamengo have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Flamengo are 0.70 PPG clear of Cruzeiro in recent Serie A fixtures (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cruzeiro lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cruzeiro — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Flamengo — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 27% versus Flamengo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cruzeiro 31% | Flamengo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 0.71 xG and Flamengo 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 0.532 / defence 0.894 | Flamengo attack 1.158 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.020. Cruzeiro's attack strength of 0.532 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Cruzeiro games / 64 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 23% | Draw 35% | Flamengo 42%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 4.35 | Draw 2.86 | Flamengo 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Cruzeiro's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Cruzeiro 20% | Flamengo 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Oct 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 23% | Draw 35% | Flamengo 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Cruzeiro 0.71 / Flamengo 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 0.532 / def 0.894 | Flamengo attack 1.158 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Flamengo xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Flamengo kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 19 October 2023 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Cruzeiro 0 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Flamengo part of?
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 23% chance of winning, Flamengo a 42% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Cruzeiro and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Flamengo?
Record (1 meetings): Cruzeiro 0W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 0W.
What form are Cruzeiro and Flamengo in?
Cruzeiro (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Flamengo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cruzeiro's attack at 0.53x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.16x) against Cruzeiro's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 26/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
23%
4.35
35%
2.86
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
1.76
1.06
Flamengo xG
4.35
23%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.50
21%
4.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 18.1 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 1.06 for Flamengo, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cruzeiro's recent record stands at 7W 10D 9L from 26 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Cruzeiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 6L across 26 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cruzeiro heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cruzeiro have managed 3W 5D 5L from 13 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 6W 4D 3L across 13 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cruzeiro are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.46 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cruzeiro have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cruzeiro and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 7W 10D 9L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 12W 8D 6L in their last 26 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 1.08 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Flamengo in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cruzeiro have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Cruzeiro
2
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Flamengo?
From 7 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 1, Flamengo have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Flamengo 2-0 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 23%, Flamengo 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 8% (Cruzeiro) and 69% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cruzeiro have failed to score in 62% of games; Flamengo in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cruzeiro play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 69% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cruzeiro vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 8% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 69% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and Flamengo tend to score early?
Cruzeiro have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cruzeiro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Cruzeiro 0-2 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 0.71 xG and Flamengo 1.06 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 0.53 / defence 0.89 against Flamengo attack 1.16 / defence 0.98, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 23% | Draw 35% | Flamengo 42%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 31%, Flamengo 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.