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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vasco DA Gama cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fluminense.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasco DA Gama beat Fluminense 2-0 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.93 xG and Fluminense 1.47 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fluminense landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.21 / defence 1.32 against Fluminense attack 1.11 / defence 1.09, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 49% | Draw 22% | Fluminense 29%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 52%, Fluminense 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Fluminense's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.28 PPG, Fluminense 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights