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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sat 19 Apr 2025

22:30

Venue

Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Flamengo Win

34%

Vasco DA Gama

2.94

32%

Draw

3.16

34%

Flamengo

2.91

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.6%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

9.8%

Away win

1 – 0

9.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.29

Vasco DA Gama xG

Total xG

2.59

1.30

Flamengo xG

34%
32%
34%
Vasco DA GamaDrawFlamengo

2.94

34%

Home win

3.16

32%

Draw

2.91

34%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

48%

Over 2.5

2.08

52%

Under 2.5

1.92

26%

Over 3.5

3.85

74%

Under 3.5

1.35

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

55%

BTTS Yes

1.81

45%

BTTS No

2.23

Clean Sheet

27%

Vasco DA Gama

3.66

28%

Flamengo

3.63

Win to Nil

9%

Vasco DA Gama

10.78

9%

Flamengo

10.55

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.5 9.8 6.3 2.7 0.9 0.2
1 9.7 12.6 8.2 3.5 1.1 0.3
2 6.3 8.1 5.3 2.3 0.7 0.2
3 2.7 3.5 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.289
λ Away (xG) 1.298
Total xG 2.587
League avg home goals 1.463
League avg away goals 0.905
Vasco DA Gama attack strength 1.177
Vasco DA Gama defence strength 1.096
Flamengo attack strength 1.310
Flamengo defence strength 0.749
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 42 / 42