Vasco DA Gama 1-4 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo meet at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 6 June 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Flamengo have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Flamengo away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.12 xG and Flamengo 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.707 / defence 1.220 | Flamengo attack 1.164 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.066. Vasco DA Gama's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Vasco DA Gama games / 46 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 26% | Draw 30% | Flamengo 44%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Flamengo 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Jun 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 26% | Draw 30% | Flamengo 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.12 / Flamengo 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.707 / def 1.220 | Flamengo attack 1.164 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Flamengo xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 6 June 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Vasco DA Gama 1 - 4 Flamengo.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 26% chance of winning, Flamengo a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Flamengo away split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (0.71) and Flamengo's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.16x) against Vasco DA Gama's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
26%
3.89
30%
3.30
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.64
1.51
Flamengo xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
6%
17.67
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.51 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Pre-Season
Flamengo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 1-6 on 2 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasco DA Gama have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Vasco DA Gama
4
Draws
3
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Flamengo have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Flamengo 2-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Vasco DA Gama.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Vasco DA Gama 1-4 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.12 xG and Flamengo 1.51 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 1.51 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.71 / defence 1.22 against Flamengo attack 1.16 / defence 1.14, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 26% | Draw 30% | Flamengo 44%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.