Palmeiras 3-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs Coritiba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coritiba make the trip to Allianz Parque to face Palmeiras in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 June 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Palmeiras have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palmeiras have posted 8W 2D 0L at Allianz Parque — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Allianz Parque than their overall form suggests.
Coritiba (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Coritiba have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Palmeiras's favour (2.10 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Palmeiras 2W, Coritiba 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2022, ended 4–0 with Palmeiras winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Coritiba — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 45% versus Coritiba 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 50% | Coritiba 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 2.38 xG and Coritiba 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.232 / defence 0.957 | Coritiba attack 0.919 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.070. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing Palmeiras's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Palmeiras games / 46 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 67% | Draw 21% | Coritiba 11%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Coritiba 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (67%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Palmeiras 40% | Coritiba 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 67% | Draw 21% | Coritiba 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 57% | xG Palmeiras 2.38 / Coritiba 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.232 / def 0.957 | Coritiba attack 0.919 / def 1.383 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Coritiba xG
57%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Coritiba kick off?
Palmeiras vs Coritiba kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Coritiba?
Palmeiras 3 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Palmeiras vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Coritiba part of?
Palmeiras vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 67% chance of winning, Coritiba a 11% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Palmeiras and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Coritiba?
Record (2 meetings): Palmeiras 2W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 0W.
What form are Palmeiras and Coritiba in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Coritiba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.23x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 2.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Coritiba's attack (0.92x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
67%
1.48
21%
4.69
11%
8.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
3.32
0.94
Coritiba xG
1.48
67%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
8.87
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
9%
10.83
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
1%
96.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.94 for Coritiba, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palmeiras come into this having played 38 games, going 23W 12D 3L for 2.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Coritiba sit at 1.11 PPG from 38 outings (12W 6D 20L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.02 PPG clear of Coritiba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Palmeiras's home form reads 13W 4D 2L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Coritiba have taken 0.26 points per game from 19 outings (1W 2D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palmeiras are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.03 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Coritiba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 23W 12D 3L in their last 38 games (2.13 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 12W 6D 20L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Coritiba away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.26 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.26 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Coritiba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Coritiba in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 4-0 on 6 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Coritiba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
0
Draws
0
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Coritiba?
From 5 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Coritiba have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Coritiba 1-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Coritiba?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 37%, Coritiba 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Palmeiras) and 58% (Coritiba). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Coritiba in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 53% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Palmeiras's matches and 58% of Coritiba's.
Do Palmeiras and Coritiba tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Coritiba 3-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 2.38 xG and Coritiba 0.94 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.23 / defence 0.96 against Coritiba attack 0.92 / defence 1.38, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 67% | Draw 21% | Coritiba 11%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 50%, Coritiba 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Coritiba's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.