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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Corinthians defy the odds to beat Vasco DA Gama 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Corinthians beat Vasco DA Gama 2-3 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.21 xG and Corinthians 0.94 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Corinthians outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Corinthians attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 42% | Draw 29% | Corinthians 29%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Corinthians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 51%, Corinthians 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Corinthians's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.21 PPG, Corinthians 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Corinthians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights