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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vasco DA Gama and Ceara share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 23, as Vasco DA Gama and Ceara drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.21 xG and Ceara 1.03 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ceara outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.95 / defence 1.18 against Ceara attack 0.81 / defence 0.94, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 40% | Draw 29% | Ceara 31%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 57%, Ceara 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Ceara's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.05 PPG, Ceara 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ceara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights