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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vasco DA Gama.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Botafogo beat Vasco DA Gama 0-2 at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 0.89 xG and Botafogo 0.71 xG, a combined 1.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Botafogo outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Botafogo attack 0.79 / defence 0.70, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 37% | Draw 37% | Botafogo 26%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Botafogo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 53%, Botafogo 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Botafogo's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights