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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vasco DA Gama cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bahia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasco DA Gama beat Bahia 3-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.50 xG and Bahia 1.32 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.00 / defence 1.26 against Bahia attack 0.97 / defence 1.10, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 41% | Draw 25% | Bahia 33%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 52%, Bahia 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Bahia's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.18 PPG, Bahia 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. Bahia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights