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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Wed 24 Sep 2025

23:30

Venue

Estádio São Januário

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Vasco DA Gama Win

41%

Vasco DA Gama

2.41

25%

Draw

3.99

33%

Bahia

2.99

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.8%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

8.9%

Home win

2 – 1

8.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.50

Vasco DA Gama xG

Total xG

2.82

1.32

Bahia xG

41%
25%
33%
Vasco DA GamaDrawBahia

2.41

41%

Home win

3.99

25%

Draw

2.99

33%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

54%

Over 2.5

1.85

46%

Under 2.5

2.17

31%

Over 3.5

3.23

69%

Under 3.5

1.45

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.75

43%

BTTS No

2.33

Clean Sheet

27%

Vasco DA Gama

3.75

22%

Bahia

4.48

Win to Nil

11%

Vasco DA Gama

9.06

7%

Bahia

13.38

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.9 7.9 5.2 2.3 0.8 0.2
1 8.9 11.8 7.8 3.4 1.1 0.3
2 6.7 8.8 5.9 2.6 0.9 0.2
3 3.3 4.4 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 1.3 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2
5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.500
λ Away (xG) 1.323
Total xG 2.823
League avg home goals 1.354
League avg away goals 1.088
Vasco DA Gama attack strength 1.002
Vasco DA Gama defence strength 1.256
Bahia attack strength 0.969
Bahia defence strength 1.105
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 61 / 60