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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vasco DA Gama and Atletico-MG share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasco DA Gama and Atletico-MG finished level at 1-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.15 xG and Atletico-MG 1.03 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.88 / defence 1.05 against Atletico-MG attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 38% | Draw 30% | Atletico-MG 32%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 52%, Atletico-MG 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Atletico-MG's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.20 PPG, Atletico-MG 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights