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Vitoria cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sport Recife.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitoria beat Sport Recife 1-3 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 1.40 xG and Vitoria 1.60 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Vitoria outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.80 / defence 1.84 against Vitoria attack 0.86 / defence 1.23, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 33% | Draw 24% | Vitoria 42%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 50%, Vitoria 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sport Recife's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Vitoria's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Vitoria arrived the stronger side — 1.06 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Sport Recife (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitoria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights