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Prediction vindicated as Vasco DA Gama edge out Sport Recife 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasco DA Gama beat Sport Recife 2-3 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 1.12 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.75 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sport Recife beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vasco DA Gama outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.74 / defence 1.21 against Vasco DA Gama attack 1.34 / defence 1.12, drawn from 19/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 24% | Draw 24% | Vasco DA Gama 52%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 47%, Vasco DA Gama 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sport Recife's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sport Recife 0.53 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Sport Recife (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights