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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 22

Kick-off

Mon 1 Sep 2025

00:30

Venue

Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Vasco DA Gama Win

24%

Sport Recife

4.14

24%

Draw

4.20

52%

Vasco DA Gama

1.92

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.1%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

9.9%

Away win

1 – 2

9.7%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.12

Sport Recife xG

Total xG

2.87

1.75

Vasco DA Gama xG

24%
24%
52%
Sport RecifeDrawVasco DA Gama

4.14

24%

Home win

4.20

24%

Draw

1.92

52%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

32%

Over 3.5

3.12

68%

Under 3.5

1.47

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.79

44%

BTTS No

2.26

Clean Sheet

17%

Sport Recife

5.76

33%

Vasco DA Gama

3.06

Win to Nil

4%

Sport Recife

23.87

17%

Vasco DA Gama

5.87

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.7 9.9 8.7 5.1 2.2 0.8
1 6.3 11.1 9.7 5.7 2.5 0.9
2 3.5 6.2 5.4 3.2 1.4 0.5
3 1.3 2.3 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2
4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.118
λ Away (xG) 1.751
Total xG 2.869
League avg home goals 1.352
League avg away goals 1.079
Sport Recife attack strength 0.738
Sport Recife defence strength 1.209
Vasco DA Gama attack strength 1.342
Vasco DA Gama defence strength 1.120
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 19 / 58