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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sport Recife and Sao Paulo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sport Recife and Sao Paulo finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.82 xG and Sao Paulo 1.26 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sport Recife beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.66 / defence 1.16 against Sao Paulo attack 1.05 / defence 0.97, drawn from 17/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 24% | Draw 29% | Sao Paulo 47%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 41%, Sao Paulo 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sport Recife's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Sao Paulo's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sao Paulo arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sport Recife (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights