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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sport Recife and Santos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sport Recife and Santos finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.96 xG and Santos 0.98 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sport Recife beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Santos outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.62 / defence 1.30 against Santos attack 0.82 / defence 1.24, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 34% | Draw 31% | Santos 35%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 43%, Santos 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sport Recife's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Santos's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Santos arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sport Recife (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm. Santos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights