🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as RB Bragantino defy the odds to beat Sport Recife 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Bragantino beat Sport Recife 0-1 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 1.30 xG and RB Bragantino 1.19 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sport Recife fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.85 / defence 1.26 against RB Bragantino attack 1.01 / defence 1.10, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 35% | Draw 35% | RB Bragantino 30%, with Sport Recife to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual RB Bragantino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights