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Dominant Gremio run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Sport Recife.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gremio beat Sport Recife 0-4 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 1.34 xG and Gremio 2.04 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Sport Recife fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Gremio outscored their 2.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.75 / defence 1.89 against Gremio attack 1.05 / defence 1.19, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 25% | Draw 21% | Gremio 54%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 51%, Gremio 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sport Recife's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Gremio's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Gremio arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.46. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sport Recife (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights