🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Sport Recife and Fluminense share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sport Recife and Fluminense finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 1.18 xG and Fluminense 1.32 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sport Recife beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.79 / defence 1.22 against Fluminense attack 1.04 / defence 1.09, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 33% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 40%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 44%, Fluminense 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sport Recife's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Fluminense's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.61. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sport Recife (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights