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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 26

Kick-off

Wed 1 Oct 2025

23:00

Venue

Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Fluminense Win

33%

Sport Recife

3.02

27%

Draw

3.71

40%

Fluminense

2.50

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.8%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.9%

Away win

1 – 0

9.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.18

Sport Recife xG

Total xG

2.50

1.32

Fluminense xG

33%
27%
40%
Sport RecifeDrawFluminense

3.02

33%

Home win

3.71

27%

Draw

2.50

40%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

46%

Over 2.5

2.17

54%

Under 2.5

1.85

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

51%

BTTS Yes

1.97

49%

BTTS No

2.03

Clean Sheet

27%

Sport Recife

3.75

31%

Fluminense

3.24

Win to Nil

9%

Sport Recife

11.33

12%

Fluminense

8.11

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.2 10.9 7.2 3.2 1.0 0.3
1 9.7 12.8 8.4 3.7 1.2 0.3
2 5.7 7.5 5.0 2.2 0.7 0.2
3 2.2 2.9 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.176
λ Away (xG) 1.321
Total xG 2.497
League avg home goals 1.363
League avg away goals 1.042
Sport Recife attack strength 0.792
Sport Recife defence strength 1.217
Fluminense attack strength 1.042
Fluminense defence strength 1.089
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 23 / 61