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Shock result as Sport Recife defy the odds to beat Corinthians 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sport Recife beat Corinthians 1-0 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 1.04 xG and Corinthians 1.40 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Corinthians landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.80 / defence 1.30 against Corinthians attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 21/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 28% | Draw 27% | Corinthians 45%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Sport Recife win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 48%, Corinthians 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sport Recife's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Corinthians's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Corinthians arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.52. Form was overturned, with Sport Recife winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sport Recife (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights