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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 24

Kick-off

Sun 21 Sep 2025

21:30

Venue

Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Corinthians Win

28%

Sport Recife

3.59

27%

Draw

3.73

45%

Corinthians

2.21

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.7%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

12.2%

Away win

1 – 0

9.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.04

Sport Recife xG

Total xG

2.44

1.40

Corinthians xG

28%
27%
45%
Sport RecifeDrawCorinthians

3.59

28%

Home win

3.73

27%

Draw

2.21

45%

Away win

Goals Markets

70%

Over 1.5

1.43

30%

Under 1.5

3.33

44%

Over 2.5

2.27

56%

Under 2.5

1.79

23%

Over 3.5

4.35

77%

Under 3.5

1.30

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

49%

BTTS Yes

2.05

51%

BTTS No

1.95

Clean Sheet

25%

Sport Recife

4.06

35%

Corinthians

2.83

Win to Nil

7%

Sport Recife

14.57

16%

Corinthians

6.24

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.7 12.2 8.6 4.0 1.4 0.4
1 9.0 12.7 8.9 4.2 1.5 0.4
2 4.7 6.6 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.2
3 1.6 2.3 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.039
λ Away (xG) 1.402
Total xG 2.441
League avg home goals 1.359
League avg away goals 1.095
Sport Recife attack strength 0.798
Sport Recife defence strength 1.299
Corinthians attack strength 0.986
Corinthians defence strength 0.957
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 21 / 61