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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sport Recife and Ceara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 28, as Sport Recife and Ceara drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 1.02 xG and Ceara 1.09 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.83 / defence 1.28 against Ceara attack 0.83 / defence 0.86, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 33% | Draw 30% | Ceara 37%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 46%, Ceara 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sport Recife's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Ceara's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ceara arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights