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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 28

Kick-off

Thu 16 Oct 2025

00:00

Venue

Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Ceara Win

33%

Sport Recife

3.01

30%

Draw

3.36

37%

Ceara

2.70

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.5%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

13.2%

Away win

1 – 0

12.3%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.02

Sport Recife xG

Total xG

2.12

1.09

Ceara xG

33%
30%
37%
Sport RecifeDrawCeara

3.01

33%

Home win

3.36

30%

Draw

2.70

37%

Away win

Goals Markets

62%

Over 1.5

1.61

38%

Under 1.5

2.63

35%

Over 2.5

2.86

65%

Under 2.5

1.54

16%

Over 3.5

6.25

84%

Under 3.5

1.19

6%

Over 4.5

16.67

94%

Under 4.5

1.06

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

43%

BTTS Yes

2.35

57%

BTTS No

1.74

Clean Sheet

33%

Sport Recife

2.99

36%

Ceara

2.78

Win to Nil

11%

Sport Recife

9.00

13%

Ceara

7.50

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.1 13.2 7.2 2.6 0.7 0.2
1 12.3 13.5 7.4 2.7 0.7 0.2
2 6.3 6.9 3.8 1.4 0.4 0.1
3 2.1 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1
4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.021
λ Away (xG) 1.095
Total xG 2.116
League avg home goals 1.426
League avg away goals 1.035
Sport Recife attack strength 0.834
Sport Recife defence strength 1.280
Ceara attack strength 0.827
Ceara defence strength 0.859
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 26 / 26