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Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Sport Recife 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Botafogo beat Sport Recife 0-1 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.53 xG and Botafogo 1.10 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.66 / defence 1.34 against Botafogo attack 0.94 / defence 0.63, drawn from 12/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 18% | Draw 33% | Botafogo 49%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 42%, Botafogo 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sport Recife's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Botafogo's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.25. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights