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Stalemate at Sport Recife's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sport Recife and Bahia finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.82 xG and Bahia 1.37 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sport Recife fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Bahia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.71 / defence 1.39 against Bahia attack 1.06 / defence 0.90, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 22% | Draw 28% | Bahia 50%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 47%, Bahia 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sport Recife's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bahia's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Bahia arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sport Recife (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights