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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atletico-MG cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Sport Recife.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico-MG beat Sport Recife 2-4 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.94 xG and Atletico-MG 0.92 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Sport Recife beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atletico-MG outscored their 0.92 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.72 / defence 1.48 against Atletico-MG attack 0.67 / defence 0.92, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 34% | Draw 32% | Atletico-MG 33%, with Sport Recife to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Atletico-MG win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 45%, Atletico-MG 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sport Recife's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Atletico-MG's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico-MG arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sport Recife (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.53 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights