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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vasco DA Gama cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sao Paulo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasco DA Gama beat Sao Paulo 1-3 at Estadio Do MorumBIS, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.33 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.87 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.91 / defence 1.25, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 46% | Draw 31% | Vasco DA Gama 23%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Vasco DA Gama win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 51%, Vasco DA Gama 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sao Paulo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.47 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights