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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 12

Kick-off

Fri 13 Jun 2025

01:30

Venue

Estadio Do MorumBIS

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sao Paulo Win

46%

Sao Paulo

2.17

31%

Draw

3.25

23%

Vasco DA Gama

4.31

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.7%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.8%

Draw

0 – 0

11.1%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.33

Sao Paulo xG

Total xG

2.20

0.87

Vasco DA Gama xG

46%
31%
23%
Sao PauloDrawVasco DA Gama

2.17

46%

Home win

3.25

31%

Draw

4.31

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

65%

Over 1.5

1.54

35%

Under 1.5

2.86

38%

Over 2.5

2.63

62%

Under 2.5

1.61

18%

Over 3.5

5.56

82%

Under 3.5

1.22

7%

Over 4.5

14.29

93%

Under 4.5

1.08

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

44%

BTTS Yes

2.27

56%

BTTS No

1.79

Clean Sheet

42%

Sao Paulo

2.39

26%

Vasco DA Gama

3.78

Win to Nil

19%

Sao Paulo

5.20

6%

Vasco DA Gama

16.31

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 11.1 9.6 4.2 1.2 0.3
1 14.7 12.8 5.6 1.6 0.4 0.1
2 9.8 8.5 3.7 1.1 0.2
3 4.3 3.8 1.6 0.5 0.1
4 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.2
5 0.4 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.330
λ Away (xG) 0.872
Total xG 2.202
League avg home goals 1.271
League avg away goals 0.911
Sao Paulo attack strength 0.834
Sao Paulo defence strength 1.050
Vasco DA Gama attack strength 0.911
Vasco DA Gama defence strength 1.254
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 49 / 49