🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Sao Paulo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sao Paulo and Sport Recife finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Do MorumBIS, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.73 xG and Sport Recife 0.92 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sao Paulo fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sport Recife landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 1.06 / defence 1.02 against Sport Recife attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 56% | Draw 24% | Sport Recife 20%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights