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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 1

Kick-off

Sat 29 Mar 2025

21:30

Venue

Estadio Do MorumBIS

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sao Paulo Win

56%

Sao Paulo

1.77

24%

Draw

4.17

20%

Sport Recife

5.09

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

12.2%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

11.2%

Draw

2 – 0

10.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.73

Sao Paulo xG

Total xG

2.65

0.92

Sport Recife xG

56%
24%
20%
Sao PauloDrawSport Recife

1.77

56%

Home win

4.17

24%

Draw

5.09

20%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

2.02

50%

BTTS No

1.98

Clean Sheet

40%

Sao Paulo

2.50

18%

Sport Recife

5.64

Win to Nil

23%

Sao Paulo

4.44

3%

Sport Recife

28.71

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.1 6.5 3.0 0.9 0.2
1 12.2 11.2 5.2 1.6 0.4 0.1
2 10.6 9.7 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.1
3 6.1 5.6 2.6 0.8 0.2
4 2.6 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1
5 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.730
λ Away (xG) 0.918
Total xG 2.648
League avg home goals 1.419
League avg away goals 1.055
Sao Paulo attack strength 1.060
Sao Paulo defence strength 1.023
Sport Recife attack strength 0.850
Sport Recife defence strength 1.150
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 38 / 0