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Mirassol cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sao Paulo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Sao Paulo 0-2 at Estadio Do MorumBIS, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.28 xG and Mirassol 0.80 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sao Paulo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Mirassol outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Mirassol attack 0.98 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 46% | Draw 33% | Mirassol 21%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Mirassol win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights