🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Sao Paulo edge out Juventude 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sao Paulo beat Juventude 2-1 at Vila Belmiro, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.66 xG and Juventude 0.99 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Juventude attack 0.96 / defence 1.21, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 53% | Draw 24% | Juventude 23%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 50%, Juventude 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sao Paulo's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Juventude's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.44 PPG, Juventude 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sao Paulo win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights