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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Sao Paulo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Internacional.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sao Paulo beat Internacional 3-0 at Estadio Do MorumBIS, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.79 xG and Internacional 0.97 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sao Paulo beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Internacional landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.96 / defence 1.01 against Internacional attack 0.95 / defence 1.25, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 57% | Draw 23% | Internacional 20%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 51%, Internacional 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sao Paulo's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Internacional's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.45 PPG, Internacional 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sao Paulo win broke the near-deadlock. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.49 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.49 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights