🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Sao Paulo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fluminense.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sao Paulo beat Fluminense 3-1 at Estadio Do MorumBIS, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.07 xG and Fluminense 1.05 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sao Paulo beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.93 / defence 1.09 against Fluminense attack 1.04 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 36% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 35%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 52%, Fluminense 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sao Paulo's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Fluminense's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.50 PPG, Fluminense 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sao Paulo win broke the near-deadlock. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Fluminense (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights