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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sao Paulo and Flamengo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sao Paulo and Flamengo finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Do MorumBIS, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.01 xG and Flamengo 1.12 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sao Paulo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Flamengo outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against Flamengo attack 1.24 / defence 0.71, drawn from 69/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 32% | Draw 30% | Flamengo 38%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 48%, Flamengo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sao Paulo's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Flamengo's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.51. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights