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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sao Paulo and Cruzeiro share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sao Paulo and Cruzeiro finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Do MorumBIS, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.38 xG and Cruzeiro 0.75 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.88 / defence 0.95 against Cruzeiro attack 0.87 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 48% | Draw 35% | Cruzeiro 17%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 51%, Cruzeiro 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sao Paulo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Cruzeiro's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.47 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights