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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 3

Kick-off

Sun 13 Apr 2025

21:30

Venue

Estadio Do MorumBIS

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sao Paulo Win

48%

Sao Paulo

2.07

35%

Draw

2.87

17%

Cruzeiro

5.95

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

16.5%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

0 – 0

12.0%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.38

Sao Paulo xG

Total xG

2.12

0.75

Cruzeiro xG

48%
35%
17%
Sao PauloDrawCruzeiro

2.07

48%

Home win

2.87

35%

Draw

5.95

17%

Away win

Goals Markets

63%

Over 1.5

1.59

37%

Under 1.5

2.70

36%

Over 2.5

2.78

64%

Under 2.5

1.56

17%

Over 3.5

5.88

83%

Under 3.5

1.20

6%

Over 4.5

16.67

94%

Under 4.5

1.06

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

43%

BTTS Yes

2.34

57%

BTTS No

1.75

Clean Sheet

47%

Sao Paulo

2.11

25%

Cruzeiro

3.96

Win to Nil

23%

Sao Paulo

4.36

4%

Cruzeiro

23.57

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.0 8.9 3.3 0.8 0.2
1 16.5 12.3 4.6 1.1 0.2
2 11.3 8.5 3.2 0.8 0.1
3 5.2 3.9 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1
5 0.5 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.376
λ Away (xG) 0.746
Total xG 2.122
League avg home goals 1.424
League avg away goals 0.901
Sao Paulo attack strength 0.875
Sao Paulo defence strength 0.955
Cruzeiro attack strength 0.867
Cruzeiro defence strength 1.105
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 40 / 40