Sao Paulo 2-2 Bahia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sao Paulo at 60% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sao Paulo vs Bahia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques plays host to Sao Paulo versus Bahia in Serie A (matchday 14). Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sao Paulo's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sao Paulo's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sao Paulo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bahia have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bahia's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Sao Paulo have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Bahia managing 2 and 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Sao Paulo 2–0 Bahia — a Sao Paulo win.
The head-to-head data gives Sao Paulo an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Sao Paulo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Bahia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 49% versus Bahia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sao Paulo 51% | Bahia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.77 xG and Bahia 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 1.151 / defence 0.769 | Bahia attack 0.978 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.066. Sao Paulo have a tight defence (rating 0.769), which is pulling Bahia's projected output down. Data: built from Sao Paulo's last 51 games and Bahia's last 50.
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 60% | Draw 23% | Bahia 17%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 1.66 | Draw 4.35 | Bahia 6.03. The model has a clear lean to Sao Paulo (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sao Paulo at 60% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Sao Paulo 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sao Paulo 30% (last 10 home games) | Bahia 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, matchday 14 | Venue: Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 60% | Draw 23% | Bahia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Sao Paulo 1.77 / Bahia 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 1.151 / def 0.769 | Bahia attack 0.978 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Bahia xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sao Paulo vs Bahia FAQs
What time does Sao Paulo vs Bahia kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Bahia kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
Sao Paulo 2 - 2 Bahia.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Bahia part of?
Sao Paulo vs Bahia is a Serie A fixture (matchday 14) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 60% chance of winning, Bahia a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sao Paulo and Bahia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Sao Paulo vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sao Paulo's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.98x) against Sao Paulo's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from Sao Paulo's last 51 games and Bahia's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.35
17%
6.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.57
0.80
Bahia xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
6.03
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
3%
35.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sao Paulo vs Bahia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.80 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Sao Paulo have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 31W 17D 28L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Bahia's form line: 32W 17D 27L from 76 games, 1.49 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Sao Paulo against 1.49 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sao Paulo have posted 1.92 PPG from their last 38 home games (22W 7D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Sao Paulo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bahia have gone 7W 11D 20L from their last 38 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sao Paulo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sao Paulo are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.30 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
Sao Paulo (Home) vs Bahia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Sao Paulo vs Bahia Form FAQs
What form are Sao Paulo and Bahia in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 31W 17D 28L in their last 76 games (1.45 PPG), while Bahia have gone 32W 17D 27L in their last 76 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Bahia away?
Sao Paulo's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.92 PPG; Bahia away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bahia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sao Paulo and Bahia, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 29 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sao Paulo won Bahia 0-3 Sao Paulo on 6 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sao Paulo have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sao Paulo
2
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Sao Paulo vs Bahia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Bahia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sao Paulo have won 5, Bahia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Bahia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2026: Bahia 3-2 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Bahia?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 50%, Bahia 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sao Paulo) and 60% (Bahia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Bahia in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sao Paulo vs Bahia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sao Paulo and Bahia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sao Paulo's games and 66% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sao Paulo and Bahia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Sao Paulo's matches and 60% of Bahia's.
Do Sao Paulo and Bahia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 74% of Bahia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sao Paulo and Bahia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 14, as Sao Paulo and Bahia drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.77 xG and Bahia 0.80 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bahia outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 1.15 / defence 0.77 against Bahia attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 60% | Draw 23% | Bahia 17%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 51%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.45 PPG, Bahia 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.